GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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GTE Forecasted Tracks and Intensities

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2014 GFDL Hurricane Model Ensemble
———2014 Real-Time Forecasts———

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3.) Select a product:

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GFDL ensemble forecast for HAGUPIT22W on 2014120600

Members with GFDL bogus initial vortex: GP00 GP02 GP03 GP04 GP05 GP06 GP07 GP08 GP09
Members with GFS initial vortex only: GP01

Forecaster's "Quick View"

Combined track and intensity

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Track ellipses

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Wind speed probabilities

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RI/RW probabilities

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Integrated Kinetic Energy and Surge Destructive Potential

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Radius of maximum wind

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34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind radii

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Cyclone phase space

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Precipitation amount probabilities

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Disclaimer: These are experimental research products and are not intended to replace the official forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center and/or National Weather Service.

Click here to view GFDL ensemble products all on one page.


December 3, 2014:
Keyboard shortcuts added to this web page. Ctrl+right arrow advances to the next available forecast (usually +6 hrs); Ctrl+left arrow goes to the previous forecast.

October 20, 2014:
Ensemble mean 850—200-mb layer-averaged wind product is now available. See the "Regional-scale fields" section in the "3.) Select a product" drop-down menu (available after October 20, 2014). Click here to see product information.

September 30, 2014:
Storm and year-to-date forecast verifications are now available. See the "Model verifications" section in the "3.) Select a product" drop-down menu. Click here to see product information.

September 22, 2014:
You can now filter the list of available ensemble forecasts by specified date. Click inside the text box to bring up a selectable calendar.

August 18, 2014:
200-800 km area-averaged environmental soundings added for each ensemble member.

July 3, 2014:
The GFDL ensemble website is now live. New for this year, we are running the ensemble for storms in the Western Pacific.

October 2, 2013:
NHC Best Track overlaid on GFDL ensemble track and intensity plots
--- Available in the "Track", "Intensity (Vmax)", "Intensity (Vmax and min SLP)", and "Min sea-level pressure" tabs in the "Track and intensity" section
--- Best Track plots updated every 6 hours (around 01, 07, 13, and 19 GMT)
--- You may need to refresh your browser window to view latest Best Track data

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