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GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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GTE Forecasted Tracks and Intensities

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2015 GFDL Hurricane Model Ensemble (RETIRED)
———2017 Real-Time Forecasts———

The GFDL Hurricane Ensemble Forecast System has been retired.
Our efforts are now on developing experimental versions of GFS using the FV3 dynamical core (fvGFS). Near real-time graphical forecast products can be viewed here:
GFDL fvGFS (13-km Global grid)
GFDL Hurricane fvGFS (hfvGFS; 3-km Atlantic nest)
GFDL Continental fvGFS (cfvGFS; 3-km CONUS nest)

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1.) Select a storm: YellowArrow.png

2.) Select a date: YellowArrow.png

3.) Select a product: YellowArrow.png

4.) Click:



GFDL ensemble forecast for FERNANDA06E on 2017071912

Members with GFDL bogus initial vortex: GP00 GP02 GP03 GP04 GP05 GP06 GP07 GP08 GP09 GP10 GP11
Members with GFS initial vortex only: GP01


Disclaimer: These are experimental research products and are not intended to replace the official forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and/or Joint Typhoon Warning Center.


Click here to view GFDL ensemble products all on one page.

News

July 19, 2017: The GFDL Hurricane Ensemble Forecast System has been retired.
Our efforts are now on developing experimental versions of GFS using the FV3 dynamical core (fvGFS). Near real-time graphical forecast products can be viewed here:
GFDL fvGFS (13-km Global grid)
GFDL Hurricane fvGFS (hfvGFS; 3-km Atlantic nest)
GFDL Continental fvGFS (cfvGFS; 3-km CONUS nest)

January 10, 2017:
The default web page has changed to the 2017 display. Previous years (2012-2016) can be accessed by mousing over "ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS PAGES" on the top toolbar and clicking the appropriate link.

February 12, 2016:
The default web page has changed to the 2016 display. Previous years (2012-2015) can be accessed by mousing over "ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS PAGES" on the top toolbar and clicking the appropriate link.

July 30, 2015:
The 2015 version of the GFDL hurricane model ensemble is now live! The website will continue to show products from the 2014 version that were generated before the transition. The ensemble version for the selected forecast is noted in the heading above the "Products browser" section.

May 13, 2015:
North Indian Ocean storm forecasts are now available on the website.

January 23, 2015:
Southern hemisphere storm forecasts are now available on the website.

January 2, 2015:
The default web page has changed to the 2015 version. Previous years (2012-2014) can be accessed by mousing over "ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS PAGES" on the top toolbar and clicking the appropriate link.

December 3, 2014:
Keyboard shortcuts added to this web page. Ctrl+right arrow advances to the next available forecast (usually +6 hrs); Ctrl+left arrow goes to the previous forecast.

October 20, 2014:
Ensemble mean 850—200-mb layer-averaged wind product is now available. See the "Regional-scale fields" section in the "3.) Select a product" drop-down menu (available after October 20, 2014). Click here to see product information.

September 22, 2014:
You can now filter the list of available ensemble forecasts by specified date. Click inside the text box to bring up a selectable calendar.

August 18, 2014:
200-800 km area-averaged environmental soundings added for each ensemble member.

July 3, 2014:
The GFDL ensemble website is now live. New for this year, we are running the ensemble for storms in the Western Pacific.

October 2, 2013:
NHC Best Track overlaid on GFDL ensemble track and intensity plots
--- Available in the "Track", "Intensity (Vmax)", "Intensity (Vmax and min SLP)", and "Min sea-level pressure" tabs in the "Track and intensity" section
--- Best Track plots updated every 6 hours (around 01, 07, 13, and 19 GMT)
--- You may need to refresh your browser window to view latest Best Track data


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